In last nights Athletics-Rangers extra-inning affair, Oakland third
baseman Josh Donaldson went 4-for-5 with two doubles. Oakland lost,
however it wasn't Donaldsons fault that no one was on base as he came up
towards the plate, or that the As only drove him in once from the 4
times he was on base Matt Niskanen Jersey
himself. Donaldsons 2013 performance so far has been excellent.
Donaldson has been the teams primary third baseman and it has hit
.315/.387/.523 (152 wRC+). Voros (McCrackens) Law claims that any major
league hitter can hit almost anything in 60 at bats. Donaldson is beyond
that threshold: 168 plate appearances to date this year. An example of
168 isn't exactly huge (to say the least), but there might be something
to glean from this.
On Monday, Carson mentioned Donaldson as one
of the hitters who Steamer Rest-of-the-Season projection had changed
most significantly for that positive from his pre-season projections.
That in itself is encouraging as fans, but what can we glean ourselves
that might indicate improvement in a quarter-season of play.
Unsurprisingly,
Donaldsons BABIP is high (.353) much greater than he'd ever shown in
the majors, and higher than just any season he'd put in the high minors,
and that he was at the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League for AAA.
That in itself might bring us to mostly dismi s his 2013 performance as a
fluke. For individuals who like batted ball approaches to BABIP,
Donaldsons line drive rate, Justin Williams Jersey
isnt really any better in 2013 of computer was at 2012 as he hit
.241/.289/.398 (90 wRC+) over 294 major-league plate appearances for
Oakland. But that's not all which has changed.
Donaldson is
hitting for additional power this season, sporting a .208 ISO. Donaldson
did manage nine homers in under 300 plate appearance last year, and
that's probably one of the main things pushing the As to provide him the
starting spot at third base this season. Taking a look at his home runs
per plate appearance ending in contact (HR/AB-K+SF), though, his rate
is almost exactly like last year four percent. His home runs this
season have actually been shorter and slower from the bat than in 2012,
according to ESPN Homer Tracker.
The real driver of Donaldsons
isolated power jump is the increase of doubles and triples on balls in
play he's 14 doubles and one triple already this year in 168 plate
appearances, with 16 doubles last year in almost 300 plate appearances.
That can be a increase is initially promising, extra-base Jonas Siegenthaler Jersey
hits on balls in play is about as subject to random fluctuation as
BABIP (and also the one 2013 triple can also be skewing his ISO right
now Donaldson is not a triples guy), so we ought to be cautious before
seeing labeling this as improvement for Donaldson this early in the
growing season.
If Donaldsons improved power and BABIP so Justin Peters Jersey
far in 2013 are dependent on small examples of things especially
susceptible to random variation, there's another dimension to his game
this season that might be a far more indicative positive harbinger.
Although Donaldsons excellent observed 2013 performance to date has been
based very much on an increase on balls in play and how many bases
they're going for, that isn't everything is happening. Another big
factor Donaldsons impre sive performance continues to be his improved
plate discipline. Donaldson took walks within the minors, but never in
an amazing rate, and was absolutely dreadful in that respect within the
majors before season around five percent. This season, he's up over 10
%.
Donaldson can also Alex Ovechkin Jersey
be striking out in under 16 percent of his plate appearances a lot
better than one would expect given his prior track record within the
majors and minors. While strikeout and walk rates are their very own
best predictors, the appropriate plate discipline statistics also
indicate improvement: Donaldson is swinging at fewer pitchers overall
than he did last year and much le s outside the zone, too, which a sists
the better walk rate; he is also making contact in a far better rate,
and that's why it's striking out le s often.
This is particularly
good news because while, as we have experienced, BABIP and extra-base
hits per hits in play can fluctuate a good deal, relatively speaking,
walk rates correlate extremely high among the various peripherals, and
strikeout rate correlates highest of all. Although it is still early its
this, Donaldsons improvements in avoiding strikeouts and taking walks
might be real. Even when Donaldson has not really improved in terms of
his power and skill to get hits on balls in play, the walks their very
own value, and also the improved contact will enable him not only to get
more hits, but more extra-base hits (in play and from the park) even
when his raw power hasn't improved. A hitters cant hit for extra bases Washington Capitals Jersey if he doesnt get in touch.
Josh
Donaldson is very unlikely to finish the season with a 152 wRC+. He
does appear to be a much better hitter than previously, though.
Donaldsons plate discipline continues to be one of many secrets of his
succe s to date this year, which is usually the one to watch to find out
if that succe s continues.